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中国经济的蓝图 China’s Economic Blueprint
发布时间:2016/9/13  浏览次数:848 次  来源:【西安邦尼翻译有限公司】

李克强

By Li Keqiang

 

中国总理李克强说,深化改革是前进之路

“Deeper reform is the way forward,” says Li Keqiang, prime minister of China

 

2016年,中国将继续深化改革,扩大对外开放, 拓展国际经济合作。对于长期观察中国的人们来说, 这些听起来大概耳熟能详。改革、开放与国际合作的有力结合,是多年来中国增长故事的核心要素。我们正在将其进一步推向前进。 

For the Chinese economy, 2016 is a year of reform, openness and international co-operation. These priorities may sound surprisingly familiar to China-watchers. Their potent combination has been instrumental in China’s growth story over decades. We are taking them further.

 

 中国经济总量已超过10万亿美元。在这样的体量基础上继续发展,过度依赖投资和出口拉动是不可持续的。小修小补只能应付一时:本届政府没有推行量化宽松,也没有采取竞争性货币贬值的措施,我们作出了推动结构性改革的抉择。

 Given the size of China’s $10 trillion economy, overdependence on investment and exports is not tenable. What is called for is not temporary fixes: my government has resisted the temptations of quantitative easing and competitive currency devaluation. Instead we choose structural reform.

 

 我们要通过大力推动市场化改革,尽快构建起一个大幅度增加创新驱动和消费拉动力的可持续增长新模式,更加关注社会就业、居民收入增长和生态环境的持续改善。

 We are pushing through market reforms, to speed the transition to a sustainable growth model markedly more driven by innovation and consumption. Employment, income levels and the environment are all high on our list of priorities.

 

 我们将很多政策工具组合成两大经济增长引擎, 一个是大众创业、万众创新,这是结构性改革的重要内容;另一个是增加公共产品、公共服务供给,既拉动有效需求,又可以改善民生。这两者的关键在于处理好政府和市场的关系,为个人、中小企业和大企业等市场主体营造更加适于创业创新的环境,释放增长潜力。一个更加简政放权的政府可以运用自身所长,做好宏观经济调控者、公平竞争的有效监督者、改革的推动者,并在系统性风险冒头时果断加以应对。

 We are combining myriad policy tools into two major drivers of growth. The first, essential to structural reform, highlights entrepreneurship and innovation. The second focuses on better provision of public goods and services—which in turn contributes to stronger demand and a higher quality of life. It is all about striking a better balance between the state and the market by offering individuals, small and medium-sized companies as well as major corporations a more enabling environment for business development and innovation, thereby unlocking growth potential. A leaner government can play a better role as macroeconomic fine-tuner, regulator for fair competition, champion of the reform agenda and ultimate backstop when systemic risks threaten.

 

 这些改革努力正在收到成效。服务业已占到中国GDP的一半,实现对制造业的反超且升势不减。创业创新蔚然成风,每天新增注册企业超过1万家。高技术产业增速明显快于整个工业,新技术、新的商业模式和管理方式正在以过去难以想象的方式拓宽中国经济的地平线。

 These efforts are already paying off. The services sector, accounting for half of China’s GDP, keeps widening its lead over manufacturing. Entrepreneurship and innovation are the new fashion. Over 10,000 new businesses are registered every day. Growth in high-tech industries is leading that of the industrial sector by a wide margin. Innovations in technology, business models and management keep widening the economic horizon in previously unimaginable ways.

 

 中国每年新增城镇就业1000万人以上,居民收入增长超过GDP增速。消费对经济增长的贡献率达到 60%,消费升级也伴随着强劲增长。以出境游为例,去年中国公民出境达1亿人次,今年上半年又同比增长10%

 We are creating over 10m jobs a year and disposable-income growth is outstripping that of GDP. Consumption, already responsible for 60% of growth, keeps going strong and up-market. Take outbound tourism, for example: Chinese citizens made over 100m trips overseas in 2014, and the first half of 2015 saw year-on-year growth of 10%.

 

 简而言之,尽管增速有所放缓,中国经济正在朝着我们期待的方向,朝着更多立足内需和创新拉动的方向发展。一个副产品是,经济运行状况同用电量、铁路货运量和新增银行贷款等衡量指标之间的关联系数在发生着变化。中国经济从求快求大求优求精的转变是一件好事。不然我要开始担心各项改革措施是否真的取得成效了。

 In short, despite moderation in growth, the Chinese economy is moving in the desired direction of stronger domestic demand and innovation. One by-product is a fall in the relevance of indicators such as power consumption, rail-cargo volume and new bank credit in gauging economic performance. Yet this transition from “bigger is better” to “less is more” is a good thing. I would otherwise be worried whether the reforms were working as intended.

 

 结构性改革不仅是寻找新的增长点,也包括提高传统产业的竞争力。中国规模庞大的工业部门仍是我们增长规划的重要组成部分。我们正在努力推动中国制造更上层楼,提出了中国制造2025”互联网+”等举措。我们也将更大程度融入世界经济,在更多领域放宽外资准入,其中服务业领域的开放也会进一步扩大。

 Structural reform is not only about exploring new sources of growth, but also about making traditional industries more competitive. China’s massive industrial sector remains a vital part of our plan for growth. We are working on upgrading “Made in China” with “China Manufacturing 2025”, “Internet Plus” and other initiatives. We are deepening integration with the world economy with deregulation in many areas to improve access for foreign investments, not least in service sectors.

 

 当然,随着中国市场不断成熟,竞争也会愈发激烈。但我们有信心,因为中国市场值得投入,因为中国是全球供应链的重要枢纽,而且中国还可以成为同各国合作开发全球市场的理想伙伴。

 Make no mistake. Competition is growing tougher as the Chinese market matures. But we are confident that China is a worthwhile market, a pivot of the global supply chain and a partner for the wider world market.

 

 集各方所长

 The best of all worlds

 

 我们的世界难称富足。生活在广大发展中国家的数十亿人民还没有享受到大规模工业化和良好基础设施的便利。他们的需求是巨大的,但由于缺乏资金和负担得起的装备和技术,这些需求很大程度上被抑制了。

 This is not yet a world of plenty. Billions in developing countries are yet to benefit from large-scale industrialization and proper infrastructure. The demand is enormous, but largely subdued for lack of proper funding, affordable equipment and technology.

 

 这是可以改变的。中国正在推动一带一路建设。通过国际产能合作,将中国制造业的性价比优势同发达经济体的高端技术相结合,向广大发展中国家提供优质优价的装备,帮助他们加速工业化、城镇化进程,以供给创新推动强劲增长。试想如果中国13亿人的发展能为支撑世界经济增长作贡献,那涉及数十亿人的增长将为大宗商品市场、制造业以及更广泛的领域等带来多么巨大的机遇!

 This can be changed. On connectivity, we have the “Belt and Road” initiative. On industrialization and urbanization, we offer partnerships in industrial-capacity co-operation. Combining China’s manufacturing prowess with the cutting-edge technologies of the developed economies, we can, together, supply good equipment at good prices to the developing world, sustaining robust growth with supply-side innovation. If development for 1.3 billion Chinese has helped buoy world growth, imagine what such growth spurts for many more billions could do for the commodities market, manufacturing and many others.

 

 2016年以及之后的更长时期,推动大众创业、万众创新等结构性改革和更高水平对外开放、各方共赢的国际合作都将是我们工作的重点。这是我们对实现可持续和高质量增长的答案,是一份中国市场、中国创造与世界共享的蓝图。

 Structural reform featuring entrepreneurship and innovation, greater openness and win-win international co-operation—these are our priorities for 2016 and beyond. This is our answer to the call for sustainable growth—a blueprint for sharing with the world China’s market opportunities and Chinese ingenuity.

 

 

(本文发表于《经济学人》年刊《世界2016》。《世界2016》繁体中文版于1210日由《天下杂志》刊发;《世界2016》简体版于201621日由《财经》刊发。)

(This article was published in The World in 2016, a special year-end issue of The Economist, on November 2, 2015. The traditional Chinese edition of The World in 2016 was published by Common Wealth Magazine on December 10. The simplified Chinese version was published by CAIJING Magazine on February 1, 2016.)

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